Climate Change and vulnerability

In the previous post we learned about Reduction Of Disaster Risk From Natural Hazards This post discusses how climate change affects people. More vulnerability results from increased disaster risk.

Introduction
Effects of climate change in India
Mitigation and preparedness for climate change
Climate change adaptation (CCA)
Ecosystem approach to Disaster Risk Reduction (ECODRR)
Contribution of Ecosystems to the prevention of disasters and climate change
Eco-DRR in India
Ecosystem Management for floods
Ecosystem Management for Urban floods
Ecosystem Management for Drought
Ecosystem Management for mountain drought
Management of Biomass-based fuels

Introduction

Global warming-related changes to the world's climate are referred to as climate change. The average global temperature is noticeably rising close to the surface of the Earth. The main culprit is the atmosphere's rising greenhouse gas concentrations. The yearly global temperature has been rising over the past 130 years, and the recent decade has seen all 10 warmest years since records began in 1880. (NOAA National Climatic Data Center, 2014). The characteristics of natural disasters have been found to vary in tandem with climate change.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Shift, there are two primary ways that risk patterns are predicted to change as a result of climate change:

Increase in the frequency and intensity of climatic hazards,
Increase in the risk and vulnerability of disadvantaged social groups

Major crop failures have occurred in the Marathwada region of Maharashtra as a result of unusually protracted dry spells during the monsoon and hailstorms. On the east coast, cyclones occur more frequently and are stronger. Devastating forest fires burned through parts of the Himalayas in 2016. Climate change is to blame for the forest's overall dryness. Globally, rising sea levels caused by ice cap melting and growing oceans have been seen. The shoreline in several areas of Odisha and the Sundarban region has been submerged as a result. In marshes and grasslands, weed growth has been encouraged by global warming, lowering the productivity of the land. Households are impacted by drought, floods, pests, and weed invasion, especially those that depend on natural resources like subsistence farmers, artisanal fishermen, forest dwellers, and pastoralists. People who lose their means of subsistence migrate and become "ecological refugees," relocating to neighbouring villages and towns. Claims over scarce resources frequently result in conflicts, criminality, and social instability in a densely populated, diverse nation like India, and are thus a major security problem.

The list that follows outlines how certain risks related to extreme weather and hazards related to climate change will change over time.

Negative impacts on average crop yields and increases in yield variability, leading to reduced food security
Urban risks associated with water supply systems, energy, and housing
Displacement of people with increased climate extremes
Declining work productivity, increasing morbidity (from dehydration, heat stroke, and heat exhaustion) and mortality from exposure to heat waves
Reduced access to water for rural and urban poor people due to water scarcity and increasing competition for water

Effects of climate change in India

The majority of natural occurrences are influenced by global patterns of temperature, precipitation, and biodiversity. Numerous repercussions of rising temperatures are listed below, some of which have a direct impact on India. Drought In the arid and semi-arid parts of India, drought has been a frequent occurrence. But the most feared immediate result of climate change is severe drought, even in other areas. Between 750 and 2,000 mm of rain fall are received annually by 68% of India's agricultural land. These regions are particularly vulnerable to monsoon abnormalities like late commencement, lengthy gaps, and early withdrawal. Droughts pose a threat to them. The semi-arid regions of Maharastra and the rest of India are anticipated to experience worsening agricultural drought, which would cause a shortage of food and water.

Rising Sea level

Coastal erosion, flooding of wetlands and coastal plains, salinization of aquifers and soils, and loss of plant and animal habitats are all possible outcomes of rising sea levels. Large populations reside in vulnerable coastal areas such deltas in low-lying coastal regions of developing nations like Bangladesh, China, India, and Viet Nam. The potential loss of freshwater supplies as sea levels rise and saltwater intrusion contaminates aquifers is another threat for some island governments. These high-risk regions are home to two thirds of the world's cities with populations over five million. India's coast is home to numerous towns and cities. Flooding is already a major problem in coastal areas, especially in densely populated coastal cities like Mumbai and Chennai. The harm is increased by unplanned urbanisation and the disregard for construction regulations. Urban flooding has the biggest consequences on densely populated slum regions, when health services are completely nonexistent.

Small islands in Andaman and Nicobar, Lakshadweep, and other coastal areas of India are particularly at risk because increasing sea levels endanger crucial settlements and infrastructure that provide for island inhabitants. Islands in the Sunderbans named Lohachara and Suparibhanga have already submerged. The first inhabited islands to disappear beneath the rising sea are these. These islands were a part of the mangrove forests, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, and were well-known for the Bengal tiger, an iconic and critically endangered big cat species native to India. Sea warming is having a negative impact on coral reefs, a vital source of local livelihood on both island clusters. Coral death and "coral bleaching" will cause enormous ecological losses as well as economic harm to the fishing and tourism industries.

Melting Glaciers

According to studies done by ICIMOD in 2007, the Himalayan glaciers have been melting at previously unheard-of rates in recent years. In the Himalayas, increased glacier melt raises the risk of flooding, glacial lake outbursts, and rock avalanches from unstable slopes. The decline of glaciers will have an impact on Ladakh, which depends totally on glacier waters for drinking and agriculture. In some areas, local groups have begun experimental work to preserve glaciers. Water shortages will arise from the glaciers melting, and it is anticipated that some areas of the Himalayas would experience particularly severe shortages.

Floods

As a result of climate change, heavy precipitation events are quite likely to occur more frequently. In the Ganga-Yamuna river system's flood plain zones, glacier melting also makes floods more severe. Every year, thousands of people in the Himalayan region are affected by flash floods and river line floods. In 2010, a cloudburst that also killed hundreds and displaced thousands of people in the Ladakh district of Uttarakhand (India) completely destroyed an entire village there. In the Himalayan regions of India's Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu & Kashmir states, more than ten significant incidents of a similar sort were recorded in 2010. Massive monsoon rains caused the Tehri dam's flood waters to rise above the danger threshold, alerting the public and the media to impending dangers

Mitigation and preparedness for climate change

The international community emphasised the need to encourage strategic and systematic ways to decreasing vulnerabilities and risks to hazards in the report of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction titled "Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015" (United Nations (UN), 2005, preamble).

The Sendai Framework, which was published in 2015 and is in effect from that year through 2030, came after this. The Sendai Framework is a 15-year, voluntary, non-binding agreement that acknowledges that while the State has the primary responsibility for lowering the risk of disaster, that duty should be shared with other stakeholders, such as local government, the corporate sector, and other parties.

The Sendai framework aims for the following outcome:

The substantial reduction of disaster risk and losses in lives, livelihoods and health and in the economic, physical, social, cultural and environmental assets of persons, businesses, communities and countries.

India has already started taking measures to incorporate disaster preparedness and resilience-building into its development programmes. Various programmes for kids, teens, and adults have been created to raise awareness about disasters, particularly climate change. A number of agencies, especially those that deal with natural resources like water, forests, and biodiversity, have started numerous studies and schemes to understand how climate change affects disasters and determine what steps should be taken to protect people's livelihoods.

In 2005, the National Disaster Management Act was adopted. The nodal ministry for disaster management has been designated as the Ministry of Home Affairs (in the case of a drought, Ministry of Agriculture is given the responsibility). At the national, state, and district levels, disaster management agencies (DMAs) have been identified. They consult with representatives of several state agencies. The local government entities in charge of disaster preparedness are panchayats and municipalities.

Creating comprehensive district-level disaster management plans (DMPs), particularly for areas that are at high risk, is the DMAs' most crucial task (Gangetic floodplain areas in Bihar, coastal districts on the east and west, etc.). The modelling of the effects of climate change is given special attention in order to make disaster predictions that are more accurate. The Energy Research Institute (TERI) forecasted on a map specific climate changes for distinct regions in the state of Maharashtra in 2014. Based on the areas that were projected to be affected by drought through 2050, suggestions for adjustments in cropping patterns as an adaptation measure to prevent further losses were suggested.

Climate change adaptation (CCA)

Changes that occur in a system as a result of a force or perturbation, such as a changing climate, are referred to as adaptation. The management of social and environmental systems to resist the various climatic changes is known as climate change adaptation (CCA).

Numerous actions have been requested by the international community to prevent climate change. Some of these actions take the form of policy responses, like planned effect adaptation and mitigation (Kane and Shogren 2000). While adaptation works to increase the capacities of communities and governments so that potential negative impacts are minimised, mitigation tries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by regulating their sources and sinks (cutting the use of fossil fuels and increasing green cover).

Ecosystem approach to Disaster Risk Reduction (ECODRR)

Development and how it handles the environment are linked to disasters. Environmentally irresponsible development is always harmful. Deforestation and forest degradation in recent decades have worsened the environment. Population pressures, rising needs (and greed), and depletion of natural resources have increased our vulnerability to natural calamities. Deforestation damages watersheds, increases the risk of fires, landslides, and floods, and worsens droughts and climate change. Destroying coastal wetlands, dunes, and mangroves reduces storm buffers. All of factors make low-lying islands more vulnerable to catastrophic weather (Abromovitz 2001). Ecosystem-based techniques have been recognised as a crucial climate change adaptation option in UNFCCC discussions and since Copenhagen in 2009. Sustainable ecosystem management is an efficient way to reduce disaster risk and adapt to climate change. The World Bank advocates integrating an ecosystem-based approach into adaptation programmes to reduce disaster risk. Eco DRR offers community-based benefits and focuses on livelihood, health, and food security within the framework of vulnerability reduction. At district level, an integrated district plan is suggested, which opens the door for a much-anticipated "environmental action plan" required at state, district, and local levels. This could enable DRR incorporate sustainable development in government and community actions. It attempts to reduce dependent externalities and improve self-reliance and local disaster preparedness. National Institute of Disaster Management (India) and The Partnership for Environment and Disaster Risk Reduction (PEDRR) by the UN have detailed ecosystem restoration strategies needed in India for disaster risk reduction and climate resilience. India introduced the National Institute of Disaster Management's 'Environment Based Disaster Management Module' in 2009. 2007 saw the advent of the 'Climate Change and Disaster Management' module. The synchronised worldwide endeavour was formalised at the 2010 UN-PEDRR summit in Bonn. Sri Lanka piloted the first ECO-DRR course in May 2011.

Contribution of Ecosystems to the prevention of disasters and climate change

Forests: cut carbon emissions, provide renewable energy for the poor, prevent landslides, and recharge groundwater. Mangroves buffer wave damage and prevent cyclones.

Wetlands and floodplains: Dryland grasslands minimise river runoff, storm surges, and tidal waves and prevent ocean encroachment.

Dryland grasslands:They prevent desertification, block sandstorms, and withstand drought.

Based on Gupta and Nair (2012)

Eco-DRR in India

Management or conservation of natural resources means using the environment rationally to improve human well-being. It's done by

Water, air, forests, wild and domesticated biodiversity, and mineral resources management.
Adopt corrective efforts to reduce CO2 emissions.
Traditional eco-knowledge in early warning and readiness

Ecosystem Management for floods

By recognising natural disasters as unavoidable, people in Uttarakhand's disaster-prone districts have incorporated them into their way of life and developed local solutions to their flood concerns. Collectively, people have built bridges and culverts, rebuilt embankments, and cleared sand and silt from the fields. To advocate for their rights to a living, they have banded together to form a "Livelihood Rights Association." They coordinate sit-ins and protest marches as necessary. The populace has adapted both agricultural and nonagricultural techniques as adaptive livelihood options, including

Collection and Storage of Fuelwood and fodder
Collection and storage of grain and seeds
Agricultural and Animal husbandry, fishing
Afforestation
Employment generating small business/industry,

Farmers have made their farms flood-resistant by integrating multiple farm sub-systems. Maintaining farm and kitchen gardens as well as raising cattle were all part of traditional agricultural methods. The interactions between different farm subsystems improve the way inputs are recycled inside the farm system and lower the need for outside inputs, but at the same time the resilience of farm systems gives the farm a stronger capacity for resilience in the event of floods.

Ecosystem Management for Urban floods

Urban flooding can be caused by a loss of permeable space in urbanised landscapes, insufficient drainage systems, obstruction from the careless disposal of solid waste and construction debris, encroachment of storm-water drains, housing in floodplains and natural drainage, and the loss of natural flood-storage sites. Flood mitigation in urban environments requires integrated ecological approaches that pair planning for the use of watersheds with planning for regional development (as in, for example, the Mumbai regional plan). This entails taking engineering precautions and preparing for floods while comprehending the ecological and hydrological roles played by the area. Some of the actions planned in megacities include restoring the flow of natural drains, lowering non-biodegradable garbage in the cities, maintaining open spaces for vegetation, and increasing ground infiltration of water.

Ecosystem Management for coastal hazards

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami sparked an international interest in promoting ecosystem management strategies for lowering disaster risk, increasing global awareness of the function of coastal ecosystems as natural shields ("bio-shields") against coastal hazards, and inspiring significant initiatives like the Mangroves for the Future (MFF) Programme. The Andhra Pradesh forest department estimates that one acre of planted yielded INR 60,000 in economic benefits (around 1500 USD). Additionally, the community gains advantages like access to small timber and fuel wood. Additionally, plantations act as carbon dioxide sinks and, over time, help to lessen the effects of climate change. When combined with other elements, coastal vegetation may operate as a form of coastal defence. However, their significance in the coastal ecosystem is defined by their functions as carbon sinks, soil binders, nitrogen fixers, and sources of socioeconomic benefits. Promotion of mixed-species plantations with native species, together with a clearer knowledge of community roles and benefit sharing, may aid in socioecological resilience.

Some policy-level activities to promote the management of coastal ecosystems for the benefit of the local population are included in the Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan, Coastal Regulation Zone, 2011.

Ecosystem Management for Drought

Large portions of India experienced drought in 2015 as a result of inadequate precipitation and protracted dry periods. The scarcity of water and livestock fodder made this drought particularly severe. In order to provide for the needs of small-scale farmers and pastoralists, the government had to establish fodder camps. Farmers were driven to suicide by severe crop failures. To survive, thousands of rural poor were forced to migrate. However, even under such difficult circumstances, villages that had successfully carried out Watershed Management initiatives experienced minimal negative repercussions.

Hivre-Bazar, in a region of Maharashtra that is prone to drought, is renowned for its outstanding community-based water management programme and hasn't needed outside water for the past 20 years. Hiware Bazar has water at a depth of just 20 to 40 feet, whereas other settlements in the district require the drilling of bore wells, sometimes as deep as 400 feet. The successes of the Integrated Water Resource Management programme provide extensive expertise for researching adaption strategies. Redefining water use planning, coordinating land and water resource management, recognising water quantity and quality linkages, combining the use of surface water and groundwater, protecting and restoring natural systems, and taking climate change into account are all examples of successful integrated water management strategies. Agroforestry, alternate land uses, and reforestation are a few methods for managing ecosystems to increase their resilience to drought.

Ecosystem Management for mountain drought

The vegetation cover in the mountains has decreased during the last two decades as a result of climate change and land use deterioration. As a result, rainfall-generated water is lost and does not replenish the groundwater supply. Additionally, it has led to the decline in stream discharge during the monsoon season and the drying up of natural water springs. As a result, between 1990 and 2010 in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region, 24% of the natural springs dried up and 28% became seasonal. In the absence of a monsoon, drought risk is caused by the drying of perennial streams and springs. Due to the fact that rain-fed springs and streams are important supplies of drinking water and agricultural irrigation, this poses a substantial threat to the rural socio-economy and livelihoods.

In 34 Gram Panchayats in Uttarakhand, Chirag (a non-governmental organisation) recharged 46 springs between 2008 and 2011. In the development and administration of 8 representative aquifers and 70 targeted springs, the project also aided in the establishment of institutions and institutional processes with women as essential stakeholders and decision-makers.

Management of Biomass-based fuels

Burning biomass for agriculture, fuelwood, and other purposes can generate up to 10% of total carbon dioxide and 38% of tropospheric ozone (Levine et al., 1995). In order to decrease the demand for fuelwood, UNDP, India, is encouraging the use of affordable biogas and energy-efficient stoves in rural families. Both CO2 emissions and deforestation are anticipated to decrease as a result of the programme.

Learning from traditional knowledge for early warning of disasters

In 2004, fish exposed by the sea's withdrawal drew a large number of people to the shoreline just before the Indian Ocean tsunami struck. However, the coastal Moken and Urok Lawai people in Thailand, the Ong in the Andaman Islands (India), and the Simeulue population in Indonesia immediately moved inland after seeing this as a sign of the approaching tsunami. The inhabitants of the Moken and Ong villages were saved, but the villages were devastated. Out of 80,000 Simeulue people, just seven perished because they were able to flee in time because to their native wisdom. Traditional ecological knowledge can provide a number of insights that can aid in catastrophe preparedness. These are currently being recorded and included in disaster management plans.

Reference

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Adger, W.N., 2006, “Vulnerability”, Global Environmental Change, 16: 268-281
Birkmann J. (2013). Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: Towards disaster resilient societies. 2nd edition. UNU press.